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GOLD MACRO SIGNAL NEWSLETTER

Macro-driven insights for long-term gold investors

August 23, 2026

Data as of August 20, 2026

Current Signal Overview

Strategic / Long Term (3–12+ Months): 44 → Mixed    
Intermediate Term (1–3 Months): 41 → Mixed    
Short Term (0–4 Weeks): 56 → Mixed    
Current Environment: Mixed / Transition    
Long-Term Perspective: Wait / Neutral

What Changed Since Last Issue

• Strategic / long-term score remained unchanged at 44

• Intermediate-term score remained unchanged at 41

• Short-term score improved significantly from 35 to 56

• Short-term conditions moved from bearish pressure back into mixed territory

• Real rates declined from approximately 2.41% to 2.35%

• The 4-week real-rate move shifted from approximately +0.10 percentage points to -0.08 percentage points

• The 13-week increase in real rates moderated from approximately +0.47 to +0.17 percentage points

• The dollar declined from approximately 119.70 to 118.90

• The dollar's 4-week decline increased from approximately -0.99 to -1.63 index points

• The dollar's 13-week move shifted from approximately +1.31 to -0.38 index points

• Liquidity weakened further from approximately 99.76 to 98.79

• Liquidity's 4-week move declined to approximately -2.10%, while its 13-week move fell to approximately -2.90%

• Fed policy remained neutral within the model

Key Takeaway

The Gold Macro Signal remains in a Mixed / Transition environment, but the internal balance has improved at the short-term horizon.

The most significant change since the previous issue is the recovery in the short-term score. It increased from 35 to 56, moving decisively out of bearish pressure and back into mixed territory.

That improvement has occurred primarily alongside more favorable movement in real rates and the dollar. Real rates declined from approximately 2.41% to 2.35%, their 4-week movement turned negative, and the magnitude of their 13-week increase moderated considerably.

Dollar momentum has also weakened further. The 4-week decline expanded to approximately -1.63 index points, while the 13-week measure moved from a positive reading of approximately +1.31 index points to approximately -0.38.

These developments have reduced two important sources of macro pressure.

However, the improvement has not yet broadened across the longer horizons. The intermediate-term score remains unchanged at 41, while the strategic / long-term score remains at 44. Both continue to sit within mixed territory.

Liquidity also remains an important counterweight. It weakened further across both the 4-week and 13-week measures and remains neutral rather than supportive.

The result is a more constructive near-term setup, but not yet a coordinated improvement across the entire framework.

For long-term investors, the message therefore remains one of patience. The short-term environment has improved, but the broader macro drivers and longer time horizons are still not sufficiently aligned to change the Wait / Neutral Long-Term Perspective.

Gold Macro Signal Score Trend

The latest score trend shows a meaningful improvement in the short-term horizon while the two longer horizons remain unchanged.

The strategic / long-term score remains at 44. It continues to sit within mixed territory and has not recovered from the decline seen in the previous issue.

The intermediate-term score also remains unchanged at 41. Its earlier recovery from bearish pressure into mixed territory has therefore held, but it has not yet developed into a stronger intermediate-term signal.

The largest movement occurred in the short-term score, which increased from 35 to 56.

This moves the 0–4 week horizon from the upper boundary of bearish pressure well into mixed territory.

The change is important because the short-term horizon had been the weakest component of the previous reading. Its recovery means that all three time horizons are once again classified as mixed.

The current structure is therefore:

o Short-term: 56 — Mixed
o Intermediate-term: 41 — Mixed
o Strategic / long-term: 44 — Mixed

This represents greater alignment between the three horizons than in the previous issue, but the alignment is occurring within the Mixed / Transition range rather than in supportive territory.

The short-term improvement is constructive. However, the intermediate and strategic scores will need to strengthen as well before the framework can indicate a more broadly supportive macro environment.

What Changed Recently

The most meaningful development since the previous issue is the improvement in real-rate and dollar momentum occurring alongside continued weakness in liquidity.

Real rates have moved lower, and their recent direction has become less restrictive. The dollar has also weakened across both the 4-week and 13-week periods.

These changes have helped the short-term score recover sharply.

Liquidity, however, has continued moving in the opposite direction. Its 4-week decline has increased, and its 13-week movement has deteriorated substantially.

Fed policy remains unchanged.

This combination explains why the short-term signal has improved while the intermediate and strategic readings remain at 41 and 44.

Real Rates

Real rates remain elevated, but conditions have improved since the previous issue.

The latest real-rate reading is approximately 2.35%, compared with approximately 2.41% previously.

More importantly, the 4-week move has shifted from approximately +0.10 percentage points to -0.08 percentage points.

The 13-week increase has also moderated significantly, declining from approximately +0.47 percentage points to approximately +0.17 percentage points.

This represents a meaningful change in direction.

In the previous issue, real rates were both high and rising. They remain high today, but the recent movement has become less restrictive, resulting in a current classification of High / Mixed.

This distinction is important because lower real rates generally reduce the opportunity cost associated with holding gold relative to interest-bearing assets.

The improvement does not yet represent a sustained downward real-rate trend. The 13-week measure remains positive, meaning real rates are still above their level three months ago.

However, the decline in the latest level, the negative 4-week move, and the moderation in the 13-week increase collectively represent a more constructive real-rate backdrop than in the previous issue.

Further declines would strengthen that improvement and could provide additional support to the broader signal.

U.S. Dollar

Dollar momentum has continued to weaken.

The latest dollar reading is approximately 118.90, compared with approximately 119.70 in the previous issue.

The 4-week move has declined further to approximately -1.63 index points, compared with approximately -0.99 previously.

More significantly, the 13-week move has shifted from approximately +1.31 index points to approximately -0.38 index points.

This means the dollar is now lower across both the 4-week and 13-week measurement periods.

From a directional standpoint, this is a constructive development for gold priced in U.S. dollars.

A weaker dollar can reduce one of the important macro headwinds facing gold, and the current dollar momentum is materially more favorable than it was several weeks ago.

The model's current dollar classification remains Firm / Restrictive, reflecting the broader level and structure captured by the framework. However, the underlying directional movement has clearly become less restrictive.

Continued weakness in the dollar would be an important development to watch because sustained declines across both timeframes could provide increasing support to the signal.

Fed Policy

Fed policy remains neutral within the model.

The Fed rate input remains unchanged at 3.75%, with no meaningful movement across either the 4-week or 13-week periods.

As a result, Fed policy is not currently driving the change in the signal.

It is neither adding significant new restrictive pressure nor providing a meaningful supportive tailwind.

Fed policy remains especially important to the strategic / long-term horizon because a sustained move toward accommodation could materially alter the longer-term macro environment.

For now, however, Fed policy remains a neutral component of the framework.

Liquidity

Liquidity remains neutral but has weakened further.

The latest liquidity reading is approximately 98.79, compared with approximately 99.76 in the previous issue.

The 4-week move has deteriorated from approximately -1.60% to -2.10%.

The larger change has occurred across the 13-week period, where liquidity has weakened from approximately -0.30% to -2.90%.

This indicates that the liquidity deterioration is no longer confined primarily to the shorter timeframe.

The broader three-month movement has become materially weaker as well.

A stabilization and eventual recovery in liquidity would be an important component of any broader improvement in the Gold Macro Signal.

Gold Environment Context

Gold remains in a complex macro environment.

The broader long-term role of gold continues to be shaped by monetary uncertainty, fiscal concerns, investor demand, and its use as a long-term store of value. However, the Gold Macro Signal focuses specifically on the four core macro drivers influencing the environment for gold priced in U.S. dollars.

At present, those drivers remain divided.

Real rates have become less restrictive. The latest reading has declined to approximately 2.35%, the 4-week move has turned negative, and the magnitude of the 13-week increase has moderated substantially.

The dollar has also moved in a more constructive direction. It has weakened across both the 4-week and 13-week periods, reducing an important source of pressure on gold.

Liquidity, however, has continued to weaken. Its 4-week decline has increased to approximately -2.10%, while the 13-week measure has deteriorated to approximately -2.90%.

Fed policy remains neutral.

The current environment therefore contains both constructive and restrictive forces:

• Real rates remain high but have become less restrictive

• Dollar momentum has weakened across both major measurement periods

• Fed policy remains neutral

• Liquidity remains neutral and has weakened further

• The short-term score has recovered strongly into mixed territory

• The intermediate-term score remains mixed at 41

• The strategic / long-term score remains mixed at 44

For the overall signal to improve more meaningfully, the model would likely need to see some combination of:

• Continued declines in real rates

• Sustained dollar weakness across both the 4-week and 13-week periods

• Liquidity stabilizing and returning to supportive territory

• Fed policy expectations moving toward accommodation

• The intermediate-term score strengthening from its current level

• The strategic / long-term score beginning to rise

• Greater confirmation across all four drivers and all three time horizons

The current environment is more constructive than it was at the short-term horizon, but the broader framework remains insufficiently aligned to be considered supportive.

The signal therefore remains Mixed / Transition.

What To Watch Next

The most important developments to watch are:

• Whether real rates continue declining from their current elevated level

• Whether the negative 4-week real-rate trend persists

• Whether the 13-week increase in real rates continues to moderate or turns negative

• Whether dollar weakness continues across both the 4-week and 13-week periods

• Whether liquidity stabilizes after its recent deterioration

• Whether liquidity can return to supportive territory

• Whether Fed policy expectations begin shifting toward accommodation

• Whether the short-term score can maintain its recovery in mixed territory

• Whether the intermediate-term score begins strengthening from 41

• Whether the strategic / long-term score begins recovering from 44

• Whether the three time horizons begin moving toward supportive territory together

Real rates and liquidity are particularly important areas to monitor.

The change in real-rate momentum is one of the strongest constructive developments in the latest reading. If real rates continue moving lower, this could remove an important source of pressure from the framework.

The dollar is also increasingly important. Both its 4-week and 13-week moves are now negative. Continued dollar weakness could provide additional support, particularly if it becomes sustained.

Liquidity remains the principal counterweight.

Its deterioration across both measurement periods continues to limit improvement in the longer-term signal. A stabilization in liquidity would therefore represent an important first step toward a more favorable strategic backdrop.

The short-term score has already responded to improving conditions, rising from 35 to 56.

The next question is whether that improvement can persist and eventually extend into the intermediate and strategic horizons.

The strongest constructive shift would likely require lower real rates, continued dollar weakness, improving liquidity, and a more accommodative Fed direction occurring together.

Without broader alignment, the model is likely to remain in Mixed / Transition territory.

Final Thought

The current Gold Macro Signal remains mixed, but the composition of that mixed environment has improved in an important area.

The short-term score has risen from 35 to 56, moving decisively out of bearish pressure and back into mixed territory.

The intermediate-term score remains at 41, while the strategic / long-term score remains at 44.

All three horizons are therefore once again classified as mixed.

The underlying drivers help explain the change.

Real rates have declined and their recent momentum has become less restrictive.

The dollar has weakened across both the 4-week and 13-week periods.

These are constructive developments.

At the same time, liquidity has weakened further, and Fed policy remains neutral.

This is not yet a broad supportive shift.

It is an improvement in the near-term macro environment while the longer-term framework remains unresolved.

That distinction matters.

A strong move in one timeframe should not be mistaken for confirmation across the entire framework. The strongest Gold Macro Signal environments generally develop when multiple drivers and multiple time horizons begin reinforcing one another.

For long-term investors, the message remains steady:

Allow the improvement to develop before drawing a stronger conclusion.

The current macro environment remains Mixed / Transition, and the framework continues to favor Wait / Neutral positioning until broader confirmation develops.

Gold Price Trend (5-Year Reference)

Gold remains within a broader long-term trend despite periods of substantial volatility and changing macro conditions.

The current signal should be understood within that broader context.

The model is not saying that the long-term gold trend has ended or that recent strength in gold is inconsistent with the framework.

It is showing that the four core macro drivers are not yet aligned strongly enough to support a more favorable long-term positioning assessment.

Real rates have recently become less restrictive, and dollar momentum has weakened considerably. At the same time, liquidity remains weak and Fed policy remains neutral.

The short-term score has responded positively and returned to mixed territory, while the intermediate and strategic / long-term scores remain mixed.

This combination supports the continued Wait / Neutral Long-Term Perspective.

The broader gold trend remains important, but stronger confirmation across the macro drivers would be needed for the framework to move toward a more supportive long-term assessment.

Recent Events & Macro Driver Impact

News sources are cited for the underlying events. Driver classifications and macro analysis are those of Gold Macro Signal.

Treasury Doubles Long-Bond Buybacks, Pulling Yields and Dollar Lower

Drivers affected: Real Rates · U.S. Dollar
Impact: Supportive - Short-Term / Intermediate-Term

News Source: Reuters, Aug. 19, 2026

The Treasury Department’s surprise decision to at least double the size of buybacks for longer-dated U.S. government bonds had an immediate market effect: long-term Treasury yields fell sharply and the U.S. dollar dropped, while gold surged. For the Gold Macro Signal, the most direct transmission is through Real Rates and the U.S. Dollar. Lower long-term Treasury yields can help pull real yields lower when inflation expectations do not fall by the same amount, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. At the same time, a weaker dollar is generally supportive for gold priced in U.S. dollars. This is particularly relevant to the current Signal because both of those drivers have recently moved in a more constructive direction: real rates are now approximately 2.35%, with a negative 4-week move, while the dollar is lower across both the 4-week and 13-week periods.

One important distinction is that Reuters described the Treasury action as “liquidity support” for the bond market, but that does not mean it directly improves the Gold Macro Signal’s Liquidity driver. The Signal’s liquidity measure is based on Federal Reserve balance-sheet and reserve conditions, not Treasury-market trading liquidity. A Treasury buyback can improve functioning and demand in the bond market without immediately increasing the Fed balance sheet or reserve balances. Therefore, this event should not be used to explain a direct rise in the GMS Liquidity driver. Its more relevant effect is indirect: by helping suppress long-term yields and weakening the dollar, it can create a more favorable environment for the Real Rates and Dollar drivers. The market reaction also illustrates why news can move gold before all of the underlying Signal data fully reflect the event. If lower yields and dollar weakness persist, those changes should continue to show up through the existing drivers. If the effect proves temporary, the Signal will capture that as well. Reuters reported that the dollar index fell about 0.8% on the day and that 30-year Treasury yields dropped sharply from levels near a 19-year high, showing how quickly the announcement transmitted through two of the framework’s key market-based channels. The event is therefore supportive to the macro backdrop, but it does not independently change the Gold Macro Signal.

Fed Minutes Show Growing Support for Additional Rate Hikes

Drivers affected: Fed Policy · Real Rates · U.S. Dollar
Impact: Restrictive - Intermediate-Term / Strategic

News Source: Reuters, Aug. 19, 2026

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting showed that inflation concerns had increased, with several policymakers prepared to raise rates at that meeting and many indicating that additional tightening could be necessary if inflation does not move back toward the Fed’s 2% target. For the Gold Macro Signal, this is primarily a Fed Policy event, but it can also influence Real Rates and the U.S. Dollar through expectations. A more hawkish Fed outlook is generally restrictive for gold because markets may price a higher policy-rate path, which can push real yields higher and support the dollar. Higher real rates increase the relative appeal of interest-bearing assets, while a firmer dollar can create an additional headwind for gold priced in U.S. dollars. However, the distinction between policy expectations and the Signal’s actual Fed driver is important. The Federal Reserve did not raise rates at the July meeting; the target range remained 3.50%–3.75%, and the Gold Macro Signal’s Fed input remains 3.75 with no 4-week or 13-week change. That is why the current Fed Policy classification remains Neutral despite the more restrictive tone of the minutes. The minutes can affect markets immediately, but the GMS Fed driver changes only when the policy input itself changes under the model.

Reuters also reported that the minutes produced relatively little market reaction because the Treasury’s bond-buyback announcement earlier the same day had already pushed longer-term yields lower. That interaction is a useful example of why the Signal can remain mixed even when an individual headline appears clearly restrictive. A hawkish Fed message can exert upward pressure on rate expectations and the dollar, while a separate Treasury action can simultaneously push long-term yields and the dollar in the opposite direction. The latest GMS data show that real rates and the dollar have recently become less restrictive despite the Fed minutes. Rate-futures markets were still assigning substantial odds to a rate increase later in the year, reinforcing the point that the minutes matter as a source of continuing restrictive expectations rather than as an immediate change to the current Fed input. This headline therefore represents restrictive pressure on the framework, but that pressure has not yet translated into a change in the Fed driver or reversed the recent improvement in the measured Real Rates and Dollar data.

Soft U.S. Data Pushes Dollar Lower and Trims Fed-Hike Bets

Drivers affected: Fed Policy · U.S. Dollar · Real Rates
Impact: Supportive - Short-Term / Intermediate-Term

News Source: Reuters, Aug. 17, 2026

Soft U.S. economic data, including an unexpected decline in retail sales and relatively benign July inflation readings, caused markets to scale back expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate move and pushed the dollar to a two-month low against the euro. For the Gold Macro Signal, this is a constructive development primarily through Fed Policy expectations and the U.S. Dollar, with a potential secondary effect on Real Rates. When economic growth appears less resilient and inflation pressure moderates, the Fed has less reason to tighten policy aggressively. Even if the central bank does not immediately change its policy rate, reduced expectations for future hikes can pull market interest-rate expectations lower and weaken the dollar. Both channels are generally supportive for gold. This is consistent with the latest GMS data, which show the dollar at approximately 118.90, down about 1.63 index points over four weeks and about 0.38 over 13 weeks. Real rates have also eased to approximately 2.35%, with the 4-week movement turning negative. The important nuance is that softer economic data do not automatically change the Gold Macro Signal’s Fed Policy driver. The model continues to show the Fed rate at 3.75 and classifies Fed Policy as Neutral because the actual policy input has not changed. Instead, the news affects market expectations first, and those expectations can appear in the Dollar and Real Rates drivers before any formal Fed action occurs.

Reuters also noted that long-term Treasury yields actually rose on the same day because fiscal concerns and heavy bond supply outweighed the softer data at the long end of the curve. That is another reason the Signal should not be reduced to a single headline. The same economic news can be supportive through the dollar and Fed-expectations channel while other forces push bond yields in the opposite direction. In the current framework, the clearest evidence of the supportive effect is the continued weakening in the dollar and the recent easing in real rates. If softer growth and inflation data persist, the probability of additional Fed tightening could continue to fall, potentially making those drivers more supportive over time. The event therefore helps explain why the current Signal can show improving short-term conditions even while the formal Fed Policy reading remains unchanged.

Global Bond Selloff Sends Long-Term Yields to Multi-Decade Highs

Drivers affected: Real Rates · Fed Policy
Impact: Restrictive - Short-Term / Intermediate-Term

News Source: Reuters, Aug. 18, 2026

A sharp global bond selloff pushed long-term borrowing costs to multi-decade highs, with the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield reaching its highest level since 2007 as investors focused on large government deficits, heavy debt issuance, geopolitical risk and renewed inflation concerns. For the Gold Macro Signal, the main channel is Real Rates, with a secondary connection to Fed Policy expectations. Rising Treasury yields can create pressure on gold because higher inflation-adjusted yields increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-interest-bearing asset. The inflation backdrop also matters because persistent price pressure can make the Federal Reserve more reluctant to ease and can increase the probability of future tightening. However, nominal Treasury yields and the GMS Real Rates driver are not the same thing. The Signal tracks an inflation-adjusted real-rate measure, so a rise in nominal yields only becomes directly restrictive through this driver if real yields rise as well. That distinction is especially important in a week when oil prices and inflation concerns were also increasing, because higher inflation expectations can offset part of the increase in nominal yields when calculating real rates. The latest Gold Macro Signal reading shows real rates at approximately 2.35%, down over the most recent four-week period and only about 0.17 percentage points higher over 13 weeks. In other words, the bond-market selloff created a clear restrictive force, but it did not translate into a sustained deterioration in the current measured Real Rates driver.

The subsequent Treasury buyback announcement also pushed long-term yields sharply lower, reversing part of the pressure. This sequence helps explain why the Gold Macro Signal remains Mixed / Transition rather than turning uniformly restrictive. The bond selloff represented a meaningful headwind, particularly because it highlighted fiscal and inflation risks that can keep borrowing costs elevated. But the framework looks at the resulting driver data rather than treating higher nominal yields alone as a Signal change. If renewed bond selling pushes inflation-adjusted yields materially higher, the Real Rates driver would become more restrictive. If the pressure remains concentrated in nominal yields or is offset by later declines, the model will reflect that instead. It is best viewed as a source of restrictive pressure that the measured real-rate data must either confirm or reject over time.

Disclaimer

Gold Macro Signal is a macroeconomic framework designed to help interpret long-term conditions affecting the gold market. The information provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.

The framework is based on analysis of real rates, U.S. dollar conditions, Federal Reserve policy, and liquidity trends. Market conditions can change rapidly, and no model or framework can guarantee future results or predict market movements with certainty.   

Investors should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Until Next time,